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Friday, April 14, 2017

Is the FMCG sector a good place to hide?

Sensex and Nifty are consolidating near their lifetime highs - moving up one day and down the next. FIIs have stared selling. Market experts are voicing concerns about near-term fundamental and technical headwinds.

What should small investors do? Stay on the sidelines, or continue to invest regularly? Where to invest? Everything appears so expensive!

At times like these, the best place to hide is the FMCG sector. Why? Because companies from the sector have visible earnings, generate a ton of cash, have negligible debt, don't require frequent capital expenditure and pay decent dividends. 

The sector is likely to benefit from GST and pent-up demand following demonetisation. If you have a long-term investment outlook (you should!) then you need to invest in this sector. If FMCG stocks appear expensive now - so did they five years back.

Brittania



The stock has been consolidating in a broad range for two years, but looks poised to break out upwards. The gradually rising 200 day EMA indicates a bull market.

Colgate-Palmolive



Colgate has gone nowhere in the past two years. A strong move above 1037 will be required for bulls to get the upper hand. It may be able to do so after a bit of correction.

Dabur India



Dabur's stock appears to be forming a large 'rounding bottom' pattern that can lead to an upward break out above 308. But it may take 2-3 months more to complete the bullish pattern.

Emami



Emami is trading below its three EMAs in bear territory. The correction may continue till it reaches the support level of 955.

Glaxo Healthcare



Glaxo is trading within a 'flag' pattern below its falling 200 day EMA in a bear market. A convincing move above its Mar '17 top of 5532 is required for bulls to regain control.

Godrej Consumer



The stock is consolidating within an 'ascending triangle' pattern near its lifetime high. The expected break out from the 'triangle' is upwards.

Hindustan Unilever



HUL has been stuck in a broad range for two years. The 200 day EMA is forming a 'rounding bottom' pattern that can propel the stock to a new high.

ITC



The stock is consolidating after touching a lifetime (bonus-adjusted) high. It has entered the dairy business, and plans to enter healthcare business - in an effort to reduce dependence on tobacco.

Marico



Marico is correcting overbought conditions after touching a lifetime high. It should continue to move higher.

Nestle



The stock has been in a down trend for almost 9 months. A false break out above the blue down trend line can lead to some more correction or consolidation.

[So, which of these stocks would be worth adding at current market price? Do a bit of due diligence during the long weekend.]

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