Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Gold and Silver charts: remain range-bound

Gold chart pattern


For the past 4 months, the daily bar chart pattern of Gold has consolidated sideways between the 'Support zone' (1300-1310) and the 'Resistance zone' (1360-1370). 

As the entire consolidation has occurred above the rising 200 day EMA in a bull market, the likely breakout should be upwards. It may be prudent to wait for the breakout before deciding to buy/sell.

Gold's price had shot up to the upper edge of the 'resistance zone' with a volume surge on Apr 11 - its highest level in 18 months. Negative divergences visible on the technical indicators, which failed to touch new highs, triggered a correction down to the upper edge of the 'support zone'. (The possibility was mentioned in the previous post.)

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones. MACD is falling below its signal line. RSI is moving sideways below its 50% level. Slow stochastic is inside its oversold zone.

RSI and Slow stochastic are showing positive divergences by not falling lower with gold's price. A technical bounce towards the converging 20 day and 50 day EMAs may follow.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed below its 20 week EMA but above its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in long-term bull territory.  Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is in neutral zone. Slow stochastic is falling below its 50% level. More sideways consolidation is likely.

Silver chart pattern



Contrary to expectations, the daily bar chart pattern of Silver broke out above its 200 day EMA and the 'resistance zone' (between 16.90 and 17) on Apr 18 with a volume surge that often signals a 'buying climax'.

The next day, a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) with good volume support triggered a sharp correction all the way down to the upper edge of the 'support zone' (between 16.10 and 16.20).

Despite occasional forays into bull territory, silver's price remains in the firm grip of bears. More sideways consolidation between the 'support zone' and the 'resistance zone' is likely.

Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD has fallen to its neutral zone. RSI is below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has entered its oversold zone.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver’s price closed below its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear marketWeekly technical indicators are in bearish zones.

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