Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Gold and Silver charts: sideways consolidations continue

Gold chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of Gold continued its sideways consolidation between the 'Support zone' (1300-1310) and the 'Resistance zone' (1360-1370). The consolidation has entered its 4th month.

The entire consolidation has occurred above the rising 200 day EMA in a bull market. So, the logical break out from the consolidation should be upwards. But markets don't always follow or understand logic - at least in the near term.

Note that gold's price made a futile attempt to cross above the 'resistance zone' on Wed. Apr 11, and dropped to close at 1360 (lower edge of the 'resistance zone'). The accompanying volume surge may be a sign of 'buying climax'.

Gold's price corrected below its rising 20 day EMA intra-day on Fri. Apr 13, but bounced up to close above its three rising EMAs in bull territory.

Daily technical indicators are giving conflicting signals - which is often the case during periods of consolidation. MACD is showing slight upward momentum in bullish zone. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen to its 50% level. 

RSI and Slow stochastic touched lower tops on Apr 11 while gold's price rose higher. The negative divergences can trigger a corrective move towards the 'support zone'.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed above its three rising weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory.  Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing any upward momentum. Some more consolidation is likely.

Silver chart pattern


The following remarks were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Silver: "A rally above the 200 day EMA is a possibility. Bears are likely to use the opportunity to sell again."

Silver's price rallied above its sliding 200 day EMA intra-day on Wed. Apr 11, only to face strong resistance from the 16.90 level (lower edge of the 'resistance zone') and closed just below the 200 day EMA.

On Apr 12, silver's price faced selling pressure and closed below its three EMAs in bear territory. It has since bounced up above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs.

The sideways consolidation between the 'Support zone' (16.10-16.20) and the 'Resistance zone' (16.90-17.00) has entered its 3rd month. The longer the consolidation, the stronger can be the eventual break out.

The entire consolidation has occurred below the sliding 200 day EMA in a bear market. So, the logical break out from the consolidation should be downwards. However, it may be prudent to wait for the break out before taking any buy/sell decision.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing any upward momentum and hinting at some more consolidation.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver’s price closed at its 20 week EMA, but below its sliding 50 week and 200 week EMAs in a long-term bear marketWeekly MACD and Slow stochastic are in bearish zones. RSI is in neutral zone.

No comments: