Sunday, March 18, 2018

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 16, 2018): correcting within downward-sloping channels

FIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 62.9 Billion during the week, but all their net buying occurred on Mon. & Tue. (Mar 12 & 13). They were net sellers Wed. through Fri. as per provisional figures.

DIIs were also net buyers of equity worth Rs 2 Billion. Their net buying occurred on Tue. & Thu. (Mar 13 & 15). They were net sellers on the other three days. 

During Q3 (Dec '17), India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) widened to US $13.5 Billion (2% of GDP) from $8 Billion (1.4% of GDP) in Q3 (Dec '16). The trade deficit ballooned to $44.1 Billion from $33.3 Billion a year ago due to higher imports.

BSE Sensex index chart pattern



The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex appears to be correcting within a downward-sloping channel after forming a 132 points 'gap' on Feb 5. The index tried to rally on the back of FII buying, but faced resistance from the sliding 50 day EMA on Tue. Mar 13.

On Wed. & Thu. (Mar 14 & 15), the index hovered near the top of the 'support/resistance zone' but dropped sharply on Fri. due to combined net selling by FIIs and DIIs.

On the downside, the index is likely to receive combined support from the lower edge of the downward-sloping channel, the 200 day EMA and the 32550 level. 

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones. MACD is about to cross below its signal line. ROC is falling below its 10 day MA. RSI and Slow stochastic are falling below their respective 50% levels.

Expect the index to churn within the downward-sloping channel till the end of the month. Thereafter, annual results will determine the fate of individual stocks, but overall bearish sentiment will linger for a while.

The long-term structure of the chart remains bullish. 

NSE Nifty index chart pattern



The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty has corrected for 6 weeks within a downward-sloping channel after forming a 33 points 'gap' on Feb 5.

The index closed below its 20 week EMA for the second straight week but continues to trade above its 50 week EMA in a bull market.

Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI has slipped below its 50% level in neutral zone. ROC and Slow stochastic have fallen towards their respective oversold zones for the first time in 14 months.

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved down to 24.87 - but remains well above its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is falling in neutral zone. A brief technical bounce is possible. 

Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are in the midst of bull market corrections. Downward breakouts below downward-sloping channels can lead to deeper corrections. Several IPOs have opened for subscription. More are lined up till March-end. That will divert liquidity from the secondary market. Use a 'sell on rise' strategy in the near-term.

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