Monday, December 4, 2017

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Dec 01 '17): one is overbought, the other is oversold

S&P 500 index chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 defied gravity by rising almost vertically to touch a new high of 2658 on Thu. Nov 30. Profit booking on Fri. Dec 1 dropped the stock to a test of support from its Tue. Nov 28 low of 2605.

Bulls bought the dip - a strategy they have been successfully following for the past 5 months. The index closed above the 2640 level, with a 1.5% gain on a weekly closing basis.

Daily technical indicators are showing signs of correcting overbought conditions. (The On-Balance Volume indicator - not shown - has been touching lower tops as the index moved higher. The negative divergence is a red flag for bulls.)

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed well above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are overbought. Slow stochastic touched a lower top and can trigger a correction to the rising 20 week EMA. 

FTSE 100 index chart pattern


The (purple) down trend line continues to dominate the daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100. The index made another futile attempt to break off the bear shackles by moving above the down trend line to touch an intra-day high of 7470 on Tue. Nov 28.

Bears struck immediately. Over the next three trading sessions, the index plunged below its rising 200 day EMA into bear territory - closing at 7300 and losing 1.5% on a weekly closing basis.

On Sep 15 '17, the index had similarly plummeted below its 200 day EMA - only to pullback sharply. Will the pattern repeat this time around? 

Daily technical indicators are looking oversold, and showing downward momentum. However, Slow stochastic is showing positive divergence by not falling below its Nov '17 low.

For the past month, the index has formed a bearish pattern of 'lower tops, lower bottoms'. A possible technical pullback towards the 200 day EMA is likely to face bear selling. 

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index dropped to seek support from its 50 week EMA, and closed above its 200 week EMA in a long-term bull market. Weekly MACD is sliding below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic have slipped below their respective 50% levels.

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