Monday, October 2, 2017

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Sep 29 '17): bear attack repelled; bulls gaining control

S&P 500 index chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 dropped below the 'support/resistance' level of 2490 intra-day on Mon. Sep 25, but bounced up after testing support from its rising 20 day EMA.

That was a trigger for a rally to a new high of 2519 on Fri. Sep 29, and a gain of 17 points (0.7%) on a weekly closing basis. The index is trading well above its three rising EMAs in a bull market.

Daily technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD and Slow stochastic are showing negative divergences by touching lower tops while the index moved higher. Some consolidation or correction may follow.

The previous 7 weeks' trading has formed a large 'rising wedge' pattern, which has bearish implications. A bull market is supposed to climb a wall of worries. Still, the formation of any bearish pattern at a market top should be treated with circumspection. 

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed well above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD and RSI are showing negative divergences by failing to touch new highs with the index.

FTSE 100 index chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 shows that the brief foray into bear territory (below its three EMAs) may be over. The index dropped below the support level of 7300 on Mon. Sep 25 and closed below it on Tue. Sep 26 - and tested support from the 200 day EMA.

On Wed. & Thu. (Sep 27 & 28), the index fell below the support level of 7300 intra-day, but closed above it. However, it faced resistance from the 20 day EMA. On Fri. Sep 29, the index jumped up to close above all three EMAs in bull territory, with a gain of 62 points (0.8%) for the week.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and showing upward momentum. MACD has crossed above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic have moved above their respective 50% levels - hinting at a continuation of the rally.

Bulls will need to push the index convincingly above the (purple) down trend line to regain control of the chart. (Note that their previous attempt in Aug '17 had failed. Will they taste success on a second attempt?)

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is at its neutral zone. Slow stochastic is in bearish zone.

No comments: